Cut crime and GDP could increase 5%, says World Bank

JAMAICA could grow its annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by 5.4 percentage points, if the country reduces its crime levels to that of Costa Rica. The suggestion was made by the World Bank in its 2011 World Development Report.

The Report shows that Jamaica spends U$S385 million, or J$33 billion a year, on indirect medical and other costs related to crime and violence.

The report, titled Conflict, Security, and Development and which was released recently, also estimates that "direct medical costs of all interpersonal violence" is US$29.5 million.

"Indirect costs — associated with stress and trauma, time off work due to violent incidents, and lower productivity from injury or mental illness — far overshadow direct costs," the report states.

"These costs are comparable to estimates of the cost of civil war," the report adds. "Based on growth base lines for cross-country panel date in the last 50 years, researchers estimate the costs of civil wars to range from 1.6 percentage to 2.3 percentage of GDP per year of violence. For the average country affected by violence, these effects, compounded over time, can cost the equivalent of up to 30 years of missing GDP growth."

Costa Rica, with her population of 4.58 million as at 2009, has a homicide rate of 11 per 100,000 persons compared to Jamaica with a rate of approximately 55 per 100,000 persons and a population of 2.7 million.

But there have been significant declines in the number of homicides and other crimes in Jamaica since last year, with police statistics showing that the year ended with 250 fewer murders than the record 1,680 committed in 2009.

And, the Jamaica Constabulary Force (JCF) last week announced a 44 per cent reduction in the number of murders committed between January and March, compared with the same period last year.

According to the JCF, there were 238 murders, 188 fewer than the 426 committed in the first quarter of 2010 with once hotbeds recording reductions of well over 50 per cent.

The police also said that in the first quarter shootings fell by 38 per cent, while carnal abuse and break-ins declined by 25 per cent and 14 per cent respectively.

The World Bank puts Jamaica's inner cities at the centre of the country's "crime and violence problem".

Insecurity, the bank argues, "takes a significant toll on the private sector, in direct costs of criminal acts (theft, arson, or other victimisation) and in investments in security systems."

Preventing violence and building peaceful states that respond to the aspirations of their citizens, the report says, "requires strong leadership and concerted national and international efforts".

The report is based on new research, case studies and extensive consultations with leaders and development practitioners throughout the world, the bank says.